Economic and philosophical considerations.
In the optics of a progressive development of the world economy, the principal energetic sources of the future are the solar energy and that nuclear, as also affirmed by the scientist Nobel Prize Carlo Rubbia.
Particularly the gradual increase percentage of the use of the renewable energies brings to a greater exploitation of the combustible fossils and the hydrocarbons; an economy that kept on considering the hydrocarbons as almost unique source of energy and plastic raw materials would run into periodic crises and recessions, for the inevitable increase of the cost of the oil.
You can glimpse then, to great lines, respect the hydrocarbons and the energies innovabili, a trial similar to that that, in the monetary economic systems of the industrialized nations it brought to abandon the equivalence among the numerical value of the papery coin and the value of the gold.
In fact, during the great economic development of the industrial era well soon the golden coin became insufficient to always guarantee the greater volume of economic exchanges and it was necessary to always stamp one greater quantity of papery coin, also to cover the debts of the public structures in the various states, losing well soon the value of convertibility with the gold, turns for time established.
On the other hand the paper money a valid tool is revealed for always guaranteeing the greater development of the economic exchanges, progressively replacing itself with the gold, but it cannot certainly be used for realizing jewels, for which it stays essential that precious metal.
A similar reasoning can also be made with the renewable energies; since for the economic development it is essential a wide energetic availability, a progressive increase of the renewable energies' percentage favors the economic development, which however it will always ask for greater quantity of plastic raw materials, artificial textile fibers and produced derived to the hydrocarbons, to which renewable energies cannot furnisch without to face the elevated costs of synthesis of the hydrocarbons, for which these will come therefore progressively valorized.
There are then manifold reasons for environmental character, that individualize a notable increase of the due damages to the atmospheric phenomenons to the to increase some concentration of the CO2 in the atmosphere: floods, hurricanes, increase of the level of the sea.
From 1990 to today for instance the frequency and the intensity of the hurricanes in the area of the ocean Pacific around Philippines they are increased of 3 times; also in other areas of the ocean Pacific, in the zone of the Caribbean and in the Gulf of Mexico they are probably increased in the same proportion.
Recently (article appeared on the Corriere della Sera, November 2004) a research on the environment discovered that the annual increase of CO2 in the atmosphere has passed by 1,5 parts for million to 2,5 parts for million, for which her (catastrophic) concentration of CO2 foreseen in 2050 will be reached around 2030.
Always on the Corriere della Sera, in the scientific insert of Domenica September 14 th 2004, Guido Visconti illustrates the results of a search conducted among the ices of Greenland, in an article from the title: "A wave of heat in Europe anticipated the last glacial era."
"For the first time we perhaps know how the last one glacial era can be initiated in the hemisphere north. One hundred twenty thousand years ago the climate was almost five degrees milder in comparison to today (that is the middle temperature was 5 degrees more elevated) and this provoked the breakup of the arctic ices.
The sweet water that derived slowed down the Gulf Stream (that guarantees a mild climate to Europe of the north, included England) for which the climate of Europe of the North started to slowly get cold himself.
The phenomenon continued for different thousand of years up to that, 115 thousand, years ago a sudden episode of elevated cooling is had that the beginning of the glacial era marks which will go on with oscillations of the climate up to around 20 thousand years ago, when, once reached the coldest peak the hemisphere north it starts to warm up himself to hiccup."
"The results of this search, published on the British magazine Nature and effected by an international group of scientists, are based on the analysis of core borings effected in the ices of Greenland."
"it is confirmed as the ocean is a conclusive element of his primer (of the glacial era).
To a warmer climate it corresponds the breakup of the arctic ices whose sweet water stops the oceanic streams that bring the warm from the tropics" (to the north of our northern hemisphere).
The deceleration of the Gulf Stream is already however in action (it seems that its general course is slow down of 20%) with consequent more rigid winters middly in the cities set in the north of our hemisphere.
Also during the telecast "La Macchina del Tempo" been broadcasted Monday December 13 th 2004, around the 23,45 and devoted to this matter, the results have been brought both of the mentioned scientific search, and of the reliefs on the salinity of the water of sea effected in correspondence of the Faroer Isles, offshore Scotland, in the year 2000.
It results that, while beginning from the beginning of 1900 up to 1970 it results constant, after 1970 the level of salty concentration constantly decreases, with a general diminution of 1 for thousand; it doesn't seem very, but to stop the "ribbon conveyor" it seems enough a diminution of 1% of the salinity of the water of sea.
Such "ribbon conveyor" is not only constituted from the Gulf Stream but also from a general stream that, in depth it passes around Africa, it crosses the oceans Indian and Pacific, and therefore, progressively heating itself, it resurfaces and it races in surface in contrary sense, picking up enormous quantities of heat, it crosses again around Africa, fold toward North West and it refolds then, to the height of the Caribbean toward North - East, that that is note as the Gulf Stream becoming.
Thanks to such "ribbon conveyor" the temperature enough uniform maintains him in the whole planet; if it arrested, the polar regions would progressively become colder, it would quickly increase the surface of the ices that reflecting very better then all of the planet the solar radiation, would oppose very more strongly the effect it shuts up to determine a so elevated extension of the ices to give place to fears it "a new glacial era."
Surprisingly the era of the "Illuminism" of the seven hundred one and the strong industrialization beginning from the 800 that have allowed the great actual development of the human civilization they would finish because of wrong economic and environmental choices.
In reality the actual technological knowledges and the demands of a new economic development are the best means to oppose and riequilibrare
the present and potentially catastrophic development of the greenhouse effect.
The costs of a development of the renewable energies are alone apparent and tied up in conclusion to the development of a software and a teconology adjusted that they allow the use of such energies.
Thus the 62,000 billion of equivalent tons of oil that the sun pours again every year on the earth they are easily able "to outclass" the around 9.74 billion equivalent tons of oil of fuels fossils annually burnt, of which only a least part (around the 15% of the only consumed oil) are turned into the so-called oil derived products.
It would be enough to use only the 0,35 for thousand of the energy annually poured again by the sun on the Earth (with outputs of conversion in mechanical energy that reaches 60% for the eolico while for the solar thermoelettric can varied since 20% to 40%) for to rebalance decidedly the phenomenon of the greenhouse effect, turning a well greater percentage of fuels fossils into products oil derived and guaranteeing an economic development sustained in all the countries of the world for a lot of about ten years.
This is the probable next future of the human civilization and who doesn't adopt and doesn't effects farsighted politics for the energy, of the consequent places of employment and of the environment is destined to be relegated in the limbo of the economy and the progress of the human kind.
Data drawn by a report of the Bellona Foundation.
The concentrations of CO2 are brought in ppm (in red) and the variations of the average of the temperatures (in orange) both during the past is anticipated in this century.
The following forecasts on the future of the production of energy, elaborated by the Shell AG, confirm the considerations done on the renewable energies.
Further precise statements technical respect the "ribbon conveyor."
The quantity of heat transported by such stream is equal to the 1% of the energy that the sun pours on the Earth each year; it doesn't seem a very elevated quantity, but it is equal however to around 620 billion equivalent tons of oil.
Such quantity of heat is preponderant however is in comparison to the combustible fossils annually consumed, both in comparison to the consequent greenhouse effect, above all what interests the north of the northern hemisphere and the south of that southern.
From the data furnished by the British Petroleum (BP), in the year 2003 result the followings global consumptions of energy:
oil consumed 3637 million of oil tons;
natural gas consumed 2332 million of equivalent tons of oil;
coal 2578 million equivalent tons of oil;
nuclear energy 598.8 million of equivalent tons of oil;
hydroelectric energy 595.4 million of equivalent tons of oil.
Total 9741 million of equivalent tons of oil.
Of these however those that mostly produce the greenhouse effect are the oil and the coal; the natural gas produces a lot of it less, both to parity of produced energy (30% in less than CO2) both in terms of best efficiency of the electric plants to gas (what they reach to an output of the cycle combined turbine gas - turbine to 60% vapor against the 40% of the output of the coal plants or to combustible oil).
Accordingly, in comparison to the production of CO2 an equivalent consumption can be esteemed to around 7 ÷ 8 biillion of equivalent tons of oil.
It results of it that if it came the equivalent of 620 million equivalent tons of oil transported in form of heat by the aforesaid one to miss "ribbon conveyor", the progressive cooling of the polar zones would be prevailing in comparison to the though sustained greenhouse effect, and we would inexorably go toward a new glacial era.
About the possible arrest of such ribbon conveyor, beginning from 2000 is noticed an increase of the 50% of the sweet water is deriving from the breakup of the polar ices (+ 100 cubic kilometers annually poured again in the zone of inabissamento of such tide) both from I bring him some most important rivers in Siberia (+ 128 cubic kilometers annually poured again in the zone of the sink of such stream, enormous figure, to which correspond the notable ones and plaintiffs floods that also occur in that region).
However, in perspective, a growth of some degree of the terrestrial middle temperature will also bring to a damp climate and to increases of 10 times of the course of deriving sweet water from both the breakup of the polar ices and from some of the most important rivers in Siberia; thousand of cubic kilometers of sweet water in more than could bring to the diminution of the 1% of the salinity of the water of sea in the polar zone and to the progressive arrest of the "ribbon conveyor."
From the 17/12/2004 Corriere della Sera:
"«The effect shuts it will freeze Europe»
The danger of an environmental catastrophe: «Threat the safety more than the terrorism». Alarm for the foods ogm not experimented
FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
New York - The actual overheating of the planet could bring, in brief times also, to the arrest of the oceanic stream that maintains moderated temperatures in Europe.
Already accelerating environmental catastrophes in action what floods, hurricanes, drought and fires and starting a congelation of the region. Almost a new was glacial, in short. It is this the puzzling conclusion which the American scientist Gregory D. Foster comes in an article published on the last number of the World Watch Institute Magazine, the magazine of the most important international organization of study and environmental search (the Wwi, note) that it anticipates the contents of the annual relationship, in exit in January and devoted to the threat, for the national and global safety of the planet, represented not from the terrorism but from the unstoppable ecological catastrophe. "
"U.N. - And from Buenos Aires, where he is developing the tenth lecture of the United Nations on the climatic changes, the alarm of the world meteorological organization it arrives also: the year 2004, marked by four powerful hurricanes in the Caribbean and from lethal typhoons in Asia, has been the fourth warmest year of the history. The organization, that belongs to the U.N., foresees an increase of 0,4 centigrade degrees of the middle temperature on the Earth (14 centigrade degrees) for 2004. The rhythm of this increase is around three times superior to that of the last one hundred years. And if it was not enough the year 2004 has also been the most expensive for the insurance industry.
Whether to face the damages provoked by hurricanes, typhoons and other natural disasters tied to extreme climatic phenomenons has disbursed more than 35 million dollars in the first 10 months of the year, in comparison to the 16 million of everything the 2003".